The increased fire risk in the Amazon could turn the region from a carbon sink to a net source of atmospheric carbon. (Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory.)

Often cited as the lungs of the planet, it’s well-known that the Amazon rainforest is under attrition. Agriculture, mining, urban development, hydroelectric dams and global warming each pose separate threats. It seems that the lungs are suffering from the equivalent of lung cancer or emphysema.

But just how bad is it, and how bad is it going to get? Some studies have suggested that the Amazon is quite resilient, able to withstand periodic drought and able to rebound after extensive deforestation. But this is not cause for rosy optimism, according to an article just published in the prestigious journal Nature. (Davidson E. A. et al. 2012. The Amazon basin in transition, Nature 481, 321–328. doi:10.1038/nature10717) A multi-institution team of US and Brazil authors conclude that the Amazon basin is in transition. From the pristine wilderness of nature shows and adventurous expeditions, it is moving toward what the authors call a “disturbance-dominated regime.”

Covering an area almost the size of the contiguous United States, the size of the Amazon has served as a buffer to changes wrought by various types of land use and drought instigated by climate change. The key finding of this paper is that anthropogenic change is on the verge of surpassing natural change. The authors conclude that the Amazon is shifting from a net sink of carbon to a net contributor. Given the necessity of a brake on carbon emissions to prevent runaway global warming, such a conclusion is worrisome indeed.

In support of their conclusions, the authors project a dramatic increase in fire risk by 2050, particularly in the region’s southeast, due to a combination of deforestation and climate change. Human activities such as agricultural expansion and logging interact with effects of global climate change to increase forest drying, hence fire risk. The long-term consequences are dire: increased flood damage, decreased productivity in agricultural and other sectors, higher incidence of respiratory disease and disruption of air traffic. The decrease in water run-off reduces water for human use, river navigation and hydropower generation.

The big question facing land managers and policy makers, particularly as emerging economies look to expand: is it worth it? Clearly there are trade-offs. But with such gloomy prospects, it efforts to conserve what remains and mitigate climate change effects might provide a greater economic pay-off than uncontrolled development. Hopefully we won’t have to wait to 2050 for the decision-makers to come to the same conclusion.

An oiled bird struggles to get over a boom in the middle of the Gulf oil spill. AP Photo

Stuart Pimm is interviewed by the Endangered Species Coalition about the BP oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

Listen to this podcast (with intro by ESC’s Leda Huta) in which Stuart describes the value of the Gulf as  a marine ecosystem and which species are most at risk from the spill. He discusses how scientists are helping to clean up the spill and trying to figure out the long-term effects on affected species populations and on the services nature provides. He criticizes government approaches to conservation and the need for independent peer review and monitoring of conservation programs.

Cellphone illustrating how conflict minerals are used in its production (Image credit: Enough Project)

You’ve probably heard of blood diamonds, which fund armed conflict in mostly poor and underdeveloped parts of these worlds.

Blood diamonds are part of a larger market in conflict minerals. These similarly rare and valuable commodities are mined by corrupt governments or marginal paramilitary organizations to fuel ongoing military operations and weapons purchases.

Besides enslavement, rape and murder, some of the crimes visited on the innocent powerless people who live in such conflict zones are too heinous to detail here. But they’re well documented. In particular, atrocities in the Congo defy any understanding. It’s heartbreaking to see a place where I once lived slowly implode because of human greed and lust for power.

For conservationists, this is an important issue because environmental protections in these mining operations are largely absent or if present, are ignored. Forest is cleared irrespective of any biological wealth. Moreover, the rightful stewards of such land, often indigenous people, are displaced by the conflict, often having to settle areas of high biological diversity.

A bill planned to regulate trade in conflict minerals is going through Congress. The bill as written is opposed by the National Association of Manufacturers. But the idea of HR 4128 is not to directly prevent companies buying conflict minerals since this might hinder legitimate trade. The aim is simply to require companies disclose the source of their minerals.

Why should you be interested? Because sadly, you, me and everyone else who uses modern electronics is contributing to the problem. Cell phones, computers, DVD players, game consoles and other electronic use conflict minerals.  Learn about coltan, for example, mining of which has undoubtedly help finance conflict in the Congo. (See Wikipedia article.)

Please take a few moments to consider the importance of this issue. And if you are so moved, contact your representative to ask them to support the bill when it comes up for vote. (See links below.)

For more information

• Please help 11th Hour Vote on the New Blood Diamonds (includes list of Senate and House members reviewing the bill currently in committee
• Petition: Stop the Use of Conflict Minerals in Products
• Raise Hope for Congo
• Enough Project
• NPR: Monitoring Conflict Minerals: Who’s Accountable?
• Conflict Minerals 101
• Conflict Minerals 101: Coltan, the Congo Act, and How You Can Help

Bad news. And combined with the failure of the CITES convention to pass rules that limit fishing of Atlantic tuna, a species that has undergone dramatic population declines, we can’t be optimistic that authorities will step in to halt or even regulate illegal ecommerce in endangered species.

The solution to counter the misuse of the Internet for illegal species trading must be to use the Internet. If the Internet is the problem, it is up to its users to make it the solution instead. I am not sure exactly what form that solution might take.

But we can imagine several scenarios or tools.

For example

• SpeciesWatch – online community of concerned citizens who look for illegal trading activity and report it
• Social networking groups – people who share an interest inreducing online trade in endangered species and advocate and lobby representatives and officials to take action (enforce existing laws, tougher penalties, create new legislation). These groups can also pressure ISPs to ban sites that permit illegal trading.
• SpeciesWatch @home: Use  a distributed computing model where someone downloads software onto their computer. When the computer is under-used, the software will search online for keywords indicating illegal trading activity. Results are fed to a central database that can be searched for likely “hits.” These are then reported to authorities.

Would any of these work? A combination of all three? Do you have your own ideas?

Here  at The Pimm Group our mission is to create a future for species at risk of extinction. The illegal trade enabled by the Internet strikes at the core of our goals. It threatens to unravel decades of work undertaken by scientists and conservation advocates around the world. We’re anxious to hear your thoughts.

Courtesy of NASA

According to a PLOS Biology study reported March 15 in NatureNews, “deforestation in protected areas and indigenous lands is 7–11 times less than in the surrounding areas.” Such an observation offers a clear way ahead for advocates of rainforest conservation.

By supporting preservation of indigenous lands and other protected areas (ILPAs), organizations “could slow forest loss, conserve biodiversity and preserve local cultures.”

Given the failure of last December’s climate talks in Copenhagen, Denmark, (which failed to result treaty to limit carbon dioxide emissions), such an approach could offer a “win-win” according to the report.

The report suggests that conservation of ILPAs could prevent more than a quarter or a million square kilometers of deforestation, equivalent to one-third the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions in carbon dioxide.

The NCF wants a new logo. Rather than roll out a new logo fait accomplis, it posted ideas on its Facebook page and asked “Fans” of the page to comment. Ted Kahn, Executive Director of the NCF and who founded its Facebook Fan page, posted the logo to the page’s photo album and wrote “I created a new logo for NCF. I value your input. Do you like it? Or add a comment, let me know what you think, don’t be shy.”

Indeed the Fans were not shy. Users posted more than 60 comments to various iterations of the NCF’s logo. Even better, once folks had commented, Ted tagged people in the logo so they could get credit for contributing.

Draft NCF logo posted on Facebook for comment by users

Such “crowd-sourcing” via social networks is an effective and inexpensive way for organizations to develop practically anything new, whether products, programs, or marketing materials such as logos or taglines.

From day one you get buy-in and engagement from users who feel their opinion is valued. At the same time you are reducing the costs associated with developing something entirely in-house or contracted out. And when the result is rolled out, a positive response is more likely because you have had input from those who are most likely to have a stake.

Conservation organizations should look to examples like the NCF’s to learn how to better get our message out and connect with non-scientists.

This century will surely be remembered as the time the Earth bit back—not that Mother Nature hadn’t been a little testy before now. In the fourteenth century, plague spread more easily as the population both grew and became more concentrated in urban areas. When Europeans began to travel widely to other parts of the world, they took diseases with them to vulnerable continents—smallpox to the Americas, for example. And, there were plenty of regional examples of cultures, some sophisticated, that declined precipitously, abandoning long-occupied sites where people had abused the ecological services nature had supplied them.

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Photo by Stuart L. Pimm

By Stuart L. Pimm
Special Contributor to NatGeo News Watch

There’s a small plane circling me a thousand feet up and its annoying noise makes it difficult for me to hear the Cape Sable sparrows I’m trying to census for my research. On these April mornings at sunrise, there’s usually nothing but bird songs here in the middle of the Everglades.

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Raised in Germany, she participated in the formations of the first political Green Party after witnessing the destruction of the Black Forest (Schwarzwald) through acid rain and the River Rhein polluted through an eco disaster. In her extensive travels, she has experienced awe at the natural beauty of the earth and also outrage at the human disregard for its preservation. A Key West resident with her husband Joel for 16 years and a dedicated member of GLEE (Green Living and Energy Education) and the City’s Clean KW task force.